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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+7.49vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+5.65vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.50+8.65vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.47+3.19vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.92vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.62vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23+1.25vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69+2.47vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.30+3.27vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.54-2.78vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.60vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.53-0.32vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.88vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.99-5.06vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.43-7.68vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-7.10vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.62-5.99vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.81-8.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.49Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.65Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.65Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.92University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.25University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.47Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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12.27Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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7.22Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.68Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.94Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.32Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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8.9College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.01Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.91Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Bridget Green | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 15.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 14.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.