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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.54+6.16vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+5.35vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.43+4.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+6.08vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.89vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69+4.56vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+4.25vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.42-0.65vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.45+2.60vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.93-0.26vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.99-1.57vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.30+0.49vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-2.36vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University3.22-6.07vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.81-4.98vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.23-7.76vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.63vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.52Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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10.56Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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11.25Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.35Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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11.6Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.74College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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9.43Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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12.49Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.64Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.93Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.02Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| Bridget Green | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% |
| Alexander Gonzalez | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 20.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.