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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+5.82vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+7.64vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.54+3.54vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.47+2.88vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+4.80vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22+2.00vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.05vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.99+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.23-1.01vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.62+0.17vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53-0.22vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.43-5.01vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.81-3.34vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.30-2.25vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.45-4.03vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.83-6.49vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.99-8.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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6.54Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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6.88Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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9.8Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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8.0Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.62Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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7.99University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.17Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.78Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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6.99Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.66Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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11.75Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.97Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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8.84U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Bridget Green | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.1% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 19.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.