← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+6.38vs Predicted
-
2University of Miami3.99+8.89vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University4.78+4.46vs Predicted
-
4Brown University4.49+4.38vs Predicted
-
5Boston College4.89+1.83vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University4.52+2.34vs Predicted
-
7University of South Florida4.17+2.82vs Predicted
-
8Yale University4.19+1.69vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-0.43vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University3.76+1.81vs Predicted
-
11College of Charleston4.34-1.71vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College3.68+0.31vs Predicted
-
13University of Rhode Island3.62-1.00vs Predicted
-
14Stanford University3.72-2.61vs Predicted
-
15Georgetown University5.19-9.37vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Naval Academy4.34-6.84vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University4.08-6.62vs Predicted
-
18Eckerd College3.70-6.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.38St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
-
10.89University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
-
7.46Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
-
8.38Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
-
6.83Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
-
8.34Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
-
9.82University of South Florida4.170.0%1st Place
-
9.69Yale University4.190.0%1st Place
-
8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
-
11.81Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
-
9.29College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
-
12.31Connecticut College3.680.0%1st Place
-
12.0University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
-
11.39Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
-
5.63Georgetown University5.190.1%1st Place
-
9.16U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
-
10.38Tufts University4.080.0%1st Place
-
11.66Eckerd College3.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Voss | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Fred Strammer | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Sinks | 9.7% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Alan Palmer | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| Zachary Marks | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Joseph Morris | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| David Thompson | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Stephanie Roble | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 11.8% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Maggie Shea | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 16.7% |
| Matthew Carmody | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 14.4% |
| Oliver Toole | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Robert Vann | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| William Haeger | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% |
| Hidde Van Der Molen | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.