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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.52vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+6.63vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.83vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University2.01+5.00vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+4.43vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.07+6.93vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18+1.33vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.25+4.10vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.12-0.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-0.76vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-5.19vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-6.66vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.90-4.84vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.08-2.16vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.91-6.43vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-4.68vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-7.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.63Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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7.83SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.0North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.43Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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12.93University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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12.1University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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8.52Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.16George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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9.57Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.32University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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10.27Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.3% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Adam Larson | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 18.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 14.0% |
| Will Priebe | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Lars Osell | 4.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| Will Murray | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 19.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 12.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.