← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.46vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University1.90+7.77vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+7.38vs Predicted
-
4Boston University1.69+6.24vs Predicted
-
5University of Wisconsin1.25+7.04vs Predicted
-
6University of Miami2.66+0.42vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University2.18+1.28vs Predicted
-
8North Carolina State University2.01+0.99vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.95vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.30vs Predicted
-
11George Washington University1.90-1.34vs Predicted
-
12Webb Institute1.91-2.08vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University2.12-4.54vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.55vs Predicted
-
15University of South Florida1.27-2.92vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan1.07-3.05vs Predicted
-
17Jacksonville University2.17-8.47vs Predicted
-
18University of Vermont1.08-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
9.77Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
10.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
-
10.24Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
-
12.04University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
-
6.42University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
-
8.28Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
-
8.99North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
-
10.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
-
6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
9.66George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
-
9.92Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
-
8.46Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
-
7.45SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
12.08University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
-
12.95University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
-
8.53Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
-
12.73University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.7% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 13.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.6% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Adam Larson | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Will Murray | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.4% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Will Priebe | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 19.4% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 17.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.