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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.18+7.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+8.40vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+6.76vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University2.01+4.93vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.25+7.06vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.17+2.39vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.40vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.07+4.73vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.79vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.91-0.20vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-1.29vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.66-5.25vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.35-5.50vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-3.89vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.12-6.45vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.08-3.04vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.27-4.71vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-7.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.53Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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9.76Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.93North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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12.06University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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8.39Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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6.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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12.73University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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5.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.8Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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9.71George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.75University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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7.5SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.11Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.55Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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12.96University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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12.29University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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10.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noyl Odom | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Adam Larson | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 19.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.1% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% |
| Will Priebe | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 19.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 14.2% |
| Lars Osell | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.