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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+9.29vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+5.86vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.47vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+2.36vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+3.30vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.51vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.90+2.54vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.12+0.48vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University2.01+0.01vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University2.17-1.30vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.27+1.23vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.25+0.61vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.90-3.63vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-3.87vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-4.16vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.91-6.41vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-3.99vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-5.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.36University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.3Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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6.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.54Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.48Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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9.01North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.7Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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12.23University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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12.61University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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9.37George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.13Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.59Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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12.67University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.3% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Will Murray | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Will Priebe | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Adam Larson | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 17.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 20.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.