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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami2.66+5.66vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.40vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.90+6.80vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.17+4.32vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.49vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.91+3.51vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.07vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.12+0.51vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University2.01+0.05vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.25+2.45vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.18-2.53vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-1.25vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.90-3.63vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.63vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-4.14vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.27-3.80vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-4.00vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-5.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.66University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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5.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.32Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.51Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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8.51Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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9.05North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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8.47Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.75Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.37George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.37SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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12.2University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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13.0University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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12.72University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlee Kohl | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| Will Priebe | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Adam Larson | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 15.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 5.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 13.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 20.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.