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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+8.33vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.18+5.55vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.12+4.48vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.59vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.50vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+2.47vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.25+4.09vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66-2.64vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01-0.62vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.03vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.90-2.10vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-2.70vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.17-5.84vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.27-2.88vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.90-6.38vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-4.01vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-5.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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8.55Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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8.48Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.47Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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12.09University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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6.36University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.38North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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11.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.9George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.3Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.16Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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12.12University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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9.62Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.99University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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12.68University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.3% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Will Priebe | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.5% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Will Murray | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Adam Larson | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Lars Osell | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 13.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.