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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.49vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+6.65vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University2.01+6.32vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.27+8.01vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+5.74vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+4.10vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.66-0.57vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.91+1.47vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.12-0.44vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90-0.24vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.22vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-1.16vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.08-0.29vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.07-1.40vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-8.62vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.18-7.62vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-7.30vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-5.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.65Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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9.32North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.01University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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10.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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6.43University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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9.47Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.56Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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9.76Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.78SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.84Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.71University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.38Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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9.7George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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12.1University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Adam Larson | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 13.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Will Priebe | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 18.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 18.3% |
| Will Murray | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Charlie Herrick | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.