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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.88vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+6.62vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University2.01+6.34vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.91+5.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+5.81vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.68vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.66-0.53vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.55vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.12-0.46vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.69+0.70vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.25+1.31vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.90-2.07vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.08-0.36vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-5.95vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-4.99vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.27-3.75vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-4.02vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.90-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.62Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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9.34North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.38Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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5.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.47University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.54Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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10.7Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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12.31University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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9.93Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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12.25University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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12.98University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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9.31George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Adam Larson | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.6% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 3.3% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 17.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 14.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 21.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.