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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.90+8.77vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.66+4.60vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.17+5.65vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.24vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.27+6.97vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.50vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University2.01+2.05vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.91+1.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.95vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12-1.10vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.18-2.52vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-1.54vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.07-0.32vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.54vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.90-5.53vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.08-3.08vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.25-4.65vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.69-7.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.77Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.6University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.65Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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5.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.97University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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9.05North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.39Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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8.9Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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8.48Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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12.68University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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7.46SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.47George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.92University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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12.35University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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10.15Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.8% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 13.1% |
| Will Murray | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Adam Larson | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Lars Osell | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Will Priebe | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 18.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 19.7% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 15.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.