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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+4.55vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+7.04vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.60+6.19vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.93+4.01vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.89+2.91vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.46+3.95vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.00vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.76+4.10vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.27-2.21vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69-1.29vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.11+0.23vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.37-1.90vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-2.59vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.35-7.56vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.53-1.89vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-9.86vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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9.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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9.19Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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8.01Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.91University of South Florida1.890.1%1st Place
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9.95North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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12.1SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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6.79University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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8.71Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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11.23University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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10.1Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.41University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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6.44Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.11University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Boeger | 13.8% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Porter Bell | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Eden Nykamp | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 18.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Abe Weston | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 10.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 28.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.