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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+7.89vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University5.19+3.82vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.72+8.98vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University4.78+3.26vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.62+7.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.34+3.12vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+0.17vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College3.70+3.74vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.76+2.64vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.19+0.07vs Predicted
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11Brown University4.49-2.36vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.89-4.81vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.71-1.38vs Predicted
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14University of Miami3.99-3.69vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston4.34-5.91vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida4.17-6.08vs Predicted
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17Harvard University4.52-8.55vs Predicted
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18Tufts University4.08-7.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University5.190.1%1st Place
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11.98Stanford University3.720.0%1st Place
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7.26Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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12.01University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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7.17St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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11.74Eckerd College3.700.0%1st Place
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11.64Old Dominion University3.760.0%1st Place
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10.07Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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8.64Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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7.19Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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11.62Connecticut College3.710.0%1st Place
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10.31University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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9.09College of Charleston4.340.1%1st Place
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9.92University of South Florida4.170.0%1st Place
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8.45Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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10.07Tufts University4.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 15.9% |
| Robert Vann | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Michael Menninger | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Hidde Van Der Molen | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 13.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| Joseph Morris | 5.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Fred Strammer | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Sinks | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 12.7% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Jackson Benvenutti | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Zachary Marks | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% |
| Alan Palmer | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| William Haeger | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.