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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.96+2.61vs Predicted
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2Bentley University-0.86+7.75vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire0.39+2.28vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21+3.37vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire-0.82+4.52vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.19+0.10vs Predicted
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7McGill University-0.67+2.13vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University-0.61+0.69vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.37+2.97vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.39+1.75vs Predicted
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11McGill University-0.25-3.38vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.41-3.93vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11-2.11vs Predicted
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14Boston University-0.75-4.43vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-3.61vs Predicted
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16Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-2.63vs Predicted
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17Williams College-0.60-8.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Connecticut College0.960.2%1st Place
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9.75Bentley University-0.860.0%1st Place
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5.28University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
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7.37Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.1%1st Place
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9.52University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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6.1University of Vermont0.190.1%1st Place
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9.13McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
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8.69Northeastern University-0.610.1%1st Place
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11.97Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
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11.75Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.390.0%1st Place
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7.62McGill University-0.250.1%1st Place
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8.07Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.1%1st Place
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10.89University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.57Boston University-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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13.37Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.820.0%1st Place
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8.92Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 24.5% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| James Sullivan | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Henry Poynter | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| William Denker | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Adrien Blanc | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| William Procter | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 15.0% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 13.3% |
| Colston Howell | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Griffin Stolp | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Cole Perra | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| Christopher Macken | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Andy Giaya | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 28.1% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.