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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.96+2.60vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire-0.82+7.61vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire0.39+2.30vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21+3.40vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.19+0.88vs Predicted
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6McGill University-0.25+1.64vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27+4.44vs Predicted
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8Bentley University-0.86+1.64vs Predicted
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9McGill University-0.67+0.29vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University-0.61-1.19vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.39+0.89vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11-1.23vs Predicted
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13Boston University-0.75-3.44vs Predicted
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14Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-0.66vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-1.37-3.25vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.41-7.84vs Predicted
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17Williams College-0.60-8.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Connecticut College0.960.2%1st Place
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9.61University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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5.3University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
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7.4Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.1%1st Place
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5.88University of Vermont0.190.1%1st Place
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7.64McGill University-0.250.1%1st Place
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11.44University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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9.64Bentley University-0.860.0%1st Place
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9.29McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
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8.81Northeastern University-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.89Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.390.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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9.56Boston University-0.750.0%1st Place
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13.34Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.820.0%1st Place
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11.75Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
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8.16Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.0%1st Place
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8.93Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 22.7% | 20.3% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| James Sullivan | 11.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| William Denker | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Colston Howell | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Andy Giaya | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Adrien Blanc | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 16.3% |
| Cole Perra | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Christopher Macken | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 29.8% |
| William Procter | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| Griffin Stolp | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.