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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.96+2.64vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.39+3.21vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.19+2.97vs Predicted
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4Bentley University-0.86+5.89vs Predicted
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5McGill University-0.67+4.00vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.68+3.37vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University-0.61+1.95vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy-0.41+0.01vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-1.47vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.37+1.67vs Predicted
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11Boston University-0.75-1.39vs Predicted
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12McGill University-0.25-4.50vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.39-1.03vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.11-3.02vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-3.56vs Predicted
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16Williams College-0.60-7.06vs Predicted
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17Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.82-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.64Connecticut College0.960.2%1st Place
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5.21University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
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5.97University of Vermont0.190.1%1st Place
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9.89Bentley University-0.860.0%1st Place
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9.0McGill University-0.670.0%1st Place
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9.37University of New Hampshire-0.680.0%1st Place
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8.95Northeastern University-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.01Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.1%1st Place
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7.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.1%1st Place
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11.67Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
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9.61Boston University-0.750.0%1st Place
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7.5McGill University-0.250.1%1st Place
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11.97Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.390.0%1st Place
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10.98University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.110.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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8.94Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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13.32Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz Baldauf | 24.1% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Sullivan | 13.0% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Denker | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% |
| Marguerite Deseau | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Jake Lacoche | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Adrien Blanc | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Griffin Stolp | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| William Procter | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Christopher Macken | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Colston Howell | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 14.5% |
| Cole Perra | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Andy Giaya | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 11.7% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Jessica Elmhurst | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.