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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University1.77+1.55vs Predicted
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2Virginia Tech0.18+4.03vs Predicted
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3Hamilton College0.21+3.04vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University-0.03+2.60vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.85-0.77vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech0.18+0.03vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+1.22vs Predicted
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8Penn State Behrend-1.07+1.11vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.13-2.94vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.38-2.41vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.34-5.45vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-3.77vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.58-4.83vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-3.44-1.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.55Hampton University1.770.4%1st Place
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6.03Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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6.04Hamilton College0.210.1%1st Place
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6.6Syracuse University-0.030.1%1st Place
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4.23Christopher Newport University0.850.1%1st Place
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6.03Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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8.22Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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9.11Penn State Behrend-1.070.0%1st Place
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6.06Drexel University0.130.1%1st Place
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7.59Washington College-0.380.0%1st Place
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5.55Princeton University0.340.1%1st Place
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8.23SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.17William and Mary-0.580.0%1st Place
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12.62Monmouth University-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerio Palamara | 35.1% | 23.3% | 18.1% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alan Becker | 5.5% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexa Whitman | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 15.0% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Nill | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 27.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Gurskis | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tis | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Johnson | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Eck | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 87.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.