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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.66+2.00vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University-1.21+4.94vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.08+1.21vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.66-0.95vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon-0.78+0.96vs Predicted
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7Oregon State University-1.46+0.55vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.94-1.83vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University-0.46-3.87vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon-1.38-2.58vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-1.18-4.25vs Predicted
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12University of Oregon-2.83-2.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.0University of Washington0.660.2%1st Place
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6.94Western Washington University-1.210.0%1st Place
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4.21Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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3.05University of Washington0.660.2%1st Place
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5.96University of Oregon-0.780.1%1st Place
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7.55Oregon State University-1.460.0%1st Place
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6.17University of Washington-0.940.1%1st Place
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5.13Western Washington University-0.460.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Oregon-1.380.0%1st Place
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6.75University of Washington-1.180.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Oregon-2.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucien Freemesser | 24.3% | 23.5% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Allison Sasaki | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 6.6% |
| Nathan Gerber | 13.5% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Thomas | 23.7% | 23.5% | 17.5% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Qualtier | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 1.8% |
| Hunter Wheaton | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 19.9% | 10.3% |
| Jaxon Gordon | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 3.0% |
| Yuri Berebitsky | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Sadie Creemer | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 18.2% | 10.0% |
| Jenna Hiegel | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 5.5% |
| ella notdurft | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 62.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.