← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.32vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.08+8.15vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.54+2.02vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.07+6.28vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.15+4.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.38-0.33vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.97-0.09vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.51+0.46vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.87-1.50vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-4.39vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.42-1.88vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00-1.47vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.56-4.49vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.81-2.61vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University0.29-2.05vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University0.05-2.29vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University0.57-4.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.02U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.78Old Dominion University1.150.0%1st Place
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5.67Georgetown University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.91Georgetown University1.970.1%1st Place
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8.46Georgetown University1.510.1%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Naval Academy1.870.1%1st Place
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5.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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9.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.420.1%1st Place
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10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.0%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Naval Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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11.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.810.0%1st Place
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12.95Georgetown University0.290.0%1st Place
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13.71Georgetown University0.050.0%1st Place
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12.09Old Dominion University0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 14.7% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Henry Allgeier | 15.0% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Milo Miller | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 4.8% |
| Sam Riley | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 11.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Smith | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Xavier Stoldt | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Teddy Martin | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Landon Cormie | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Henry Haddon | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Mats Braaten | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Spencer Dominguez | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| James Bounds | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% |
| Adelia DeRose | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 17.5% | 21.6% |
| Jack Pryma | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 31.2% |
| Olivia Gilmore | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 14.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.