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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+2.39vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands0.42+2.85vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.09+2.90vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+3.75vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.12+1.48vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+0.39vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-1.81+5.69vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.16+1.93vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.31-3.88vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.50-2.21vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.24-0.57vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-2.46+1.67vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.58+1.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.91+0.90vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.12-6.14vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.53-5.67vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.69-2.79vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.96-6.01vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-3.02-3.84vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-3.78-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.2%1st Place
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4.85California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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5.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.090.1%1st Place
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7.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
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6.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.120.1%1st Place
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6.39California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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12.69Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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9.93Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
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5.12University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.1%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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10.43Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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14.67University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
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15.19University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
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15.9University of California at Davis-2.910.0%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Berkeley-1.120.0%1st Place
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11.33University of California at Irvine-1.530.0%1st Place
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15.21University of California at Los Angeles-2.690.0%1st Place
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12.99University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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16.16University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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17.95Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 23.9% | 20.8% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 13.1% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Kasper | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Summer Drake | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Down | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Carter Anderson | 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 5.2% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 7.4% |
| Claire Desbaillets | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 16.6% | 14.2% |
| Zoe Flemate | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Money | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Alexandra Toaxen | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 7.6% |
| Adem Evecek | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Michael Jacobson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.