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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+6.45vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-0.10+5.76vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.47+0.39vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.32+2.31vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.12+2.13vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.97+4.51vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-3.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+0.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.20-2.38vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.46-4.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+1.04vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.13vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.90-2.85vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.53-1.46vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.36-0.40vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-2.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-3.79+0.51vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-3.25vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-3.81-1.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.45University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
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3.39University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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6.31Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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7.13University of California at Los Angeles0.120.1%1st Place
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10.51University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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3.39California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.2%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.62University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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5.75California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.1%1st Place
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12.04University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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9.87University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.15University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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12.54Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.6University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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13.93University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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17.51University of California at San Diego-3.790.0%1st Place
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14.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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17.4Arizona State University-3.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Erisman | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 24.7% | 18.5% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sanchita Pant | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 22.1% | 20.0% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Grace Richie | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 20.6% | 14.2% | 5.2% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 9.0% | 2.0% |
| Tean Brooks | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 27.0% | 45.4% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 13.9% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 5.2% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 29.1% | 41.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.