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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+6.52vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.47+1.42vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.20+3.72vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.97+6.66vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.12+2.08vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.43+2.69vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-3.52vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.46-1.88vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-1.43vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.90+0.31vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.32-4.72vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+0.21vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.66-3.62vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+0.08vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.53-2.76vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.36-1.33vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-2.40vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-3.79-0.40vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-3.81-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.52University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.0%1st Place
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3.42University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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6.72University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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10.66University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Los Angeles0.120.1%1st Place
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8.69University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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3.48California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.2%1st Place
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6.12California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.1%1st Place
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7.57University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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6.28Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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12.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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14.08University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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12.24Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.67University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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14.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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17.6University of California at San Diego-3.790.0%1st Place
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17.35Arizona State University-3.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Erisman | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 23.0% | 19.2% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sanchita Pant | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 22.4% | 20.3% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 8.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 16.7% | 10.3% | 2.5% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Grace Richie | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 18.2% | 13.9% | 4.8% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 4.1% |
| Tean Brooks | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 25.9% | 45.1% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 11.5% | 26.4% | 42.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.