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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+6.53vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.49vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.97+7.74vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.47-0.67vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.46+1.10vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.32+0.32vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California-0.10+0.77vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.12-0.80vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.43-0.28vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.20-3.37vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.90-0.55vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.10vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-1.10vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.31+1.00vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-0.17vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.53-3.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-2.82vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.62-2.26vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-3.81-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.53University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.0%1st Place
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3.49California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.2%1st Place
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10.74University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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3.33University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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6.1California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.1%1st Place
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6.32Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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7.77University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Los Angeles0.120.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.63University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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10.45University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.9University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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15.0University of California at San Diego-2.310.0%1st Place
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14.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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12.49Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.18University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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15.74University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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17.68Arizona State University-3.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Erisman | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 22.5% | 20.5% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Luke Harris | 23.0% | 20.8% | 17.8% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sanchita Pant | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Bella Valente | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 17.1% | 18.7% | 8.7% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 19.0% | 9.8% |
| Sean Kenealy | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 4.5% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 22.0% | 14.3% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 60.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.