← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+2.38vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Berkeley0.20+4.66vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California-0.10+4.62vs Predicted
-
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+3.24vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California1.47-1.58vs Predicted
-
6Arizona State University0.32+0.19vs Predicted
-
7California Poly Maritime Academy0.46-1.20vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego-0.97+2.62vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Davis-0.43-0.48vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles-2.42+4.82vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+0.88vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-2.31+2.90vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-2.62+2.23vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles-2.31+0.66vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Berkeley-1.73-2.18vs Predicted
-
16Arizona State University-1.53-3.80vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-3.81+0.63vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Irvine-0.66-8.67vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05-11.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.38California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.2%1st Place
-
6.66University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
-
7.62University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
-
7.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
-
3.42University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
-
6.19Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
-
5.8California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.1%1st Place
-
10.62University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
-
8.52University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
-
14.82University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
-
11.88University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
-
14.9University of California at San Diego-2.310.0%1st Place
-
15.23University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
-
14.66University of California at Los Angeles-2.310.0%1st Place
-
12.82University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
-
12.2Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
-
17.63Arizona State University-3.810.0%1st Place
-
9.33University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
-
7.06University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 23.1% | 19.8% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 4.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 22.2% | 19.0% | 17.7% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Araoz | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 16.4% | 8.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Bella Valente | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 18.5% | 7.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 17.9% | 19.2% | 12.0% |
| John Flanagan | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 7.4% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 2.3% |
| Sean Kenealy | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Corbin Stanley | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 60.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Erisman | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.