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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+5.32vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+6.73vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.58+3.88vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.14vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.46+2.10vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.04+2.82vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-1.22vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.15+4.28vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.47-1.99vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+2.21vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-0.09vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.03-2.73vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.07-4.42vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.13-1.81vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-1.23vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.26-3.86vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.19-4.55vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.84-8.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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6.88Stanford University2.580.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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7.1Brown University2.460.1%1st Place
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8.82College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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5.78Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.28University of Pennsylvania1.150.0%1st Place
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7.01Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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12.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.91Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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9.27Northeastern University2.030.0%1st Place
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8.58Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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12.19Tufts University1.130.0%1st Place
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13.77University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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12.14George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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9.43University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Sophie Fisher | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Emily Bornarth | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 12.1% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Margaux Cowles | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 13.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| Julia Shannon-Grillo | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.7% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 24.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.8% |
| Ava Farley | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 13.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.