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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+10.18vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.04+6.07vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+5.50vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.30+2.76vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.55+0.89vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.60+3.65vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.47-0.80vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.29+2.79vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.41+1.43vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62-0.16vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.08+0.88vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.22-0.44vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.73-4.08vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.92-9.41vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.27-4.00vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.52-5.98vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.57-3.21vs Predicted
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18Fordham University0.99-6.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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8.07Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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8.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.89Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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9.65College of Charleston1.600.0%1st Place
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6.2Stanford University2.470.1%1st Place
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10.79U. S. Naval Academy1.290.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Pennsylvania1.410.0%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Rhode Island1.080.0%1st Place
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11.56George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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8.92Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.59Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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11.0Tufts University1.270.0%1st Place
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10.02Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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11.94Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% |
| Libby Redmond | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Sarah Young | 12.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Emily Alfortish | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Margo Cicero | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Adra Ivancich | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Julia Conneely | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.7% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Garrido | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 27.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.