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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.88vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.85vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.14vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+1.01vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82+2.40vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.30+3.02vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38-1.22vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.46+5.35vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.94+0.81vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-4.29vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.31vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-1.52vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.47-1.56vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-3.48vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.22vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.12-6.17vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.28-2.04vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.88SUNY Maritime College1.884.1%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.7%1st Place
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7.14University of Pennsylvania2.428.2%1st Place
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5.01Georgetown University2.7514.9%1st Place
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7.4George Washington University1.828.2%1st Place
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9.02Webb Institute1.304.8%1st Place
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5.78Cornell University2.3810.5%1st Place
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13.35Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University1.944.2%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.3%1st Place
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7.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.7%1st Place
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10.48Old Dominion University1.813.1%1st Place
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11.44Hampton University1.472.5%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.2%1st Place
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13.78Christopher Newport University-0.841.3%1st Place
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9.83Drexel University1.123.4%1st Place
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14.96Washington College-0.280.3%1st Place
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14.36University of Virginia-0.030.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.9% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Bridget Green | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 14.2% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Laura Smith | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 18.8% | 31.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 24.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.