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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.55+5.12vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.73+7.32vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.04+5.09vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.30+2.78vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.62+4.50vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.08+5.81vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-2.26vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.47-1.88vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.60+0.62vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99+2.37vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.22+0.33vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.19vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.27-2.13vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57-0.60vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-6.80vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.52-5.96vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.29-5.93vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-7.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12Dartmouth College2.550.1%1st Place
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9.32Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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8.09Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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6.78Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Rhode Island1.080.0%1st Place
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4.74Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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6.12Stanford University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.62College of Charleston1.600.0%1st Place
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12.37Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.33George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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10.81University of Pennsylvania1.410.0%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University1.270.0%1st Place
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13.4University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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8.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.1%1st Place
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10.04Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.07U. S. Naval Academy1.290.0%1st Place
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10.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Libby Redmond | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Julia Conneely | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Leah Rickard | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 12.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 16.2% | 16.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Harned | 10.5% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Alfortish | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% |
| Marina Garrido | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 25.6% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Margo Cicero | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.