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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.82vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.80vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+4.70vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.81+6.49vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.94+5.02vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.12+3.84vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.75vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.75-2.97vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.49vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.33vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.09vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.30-3.22vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.47-1.47vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.03+0.33vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.38-9.22vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.28-1.04vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.25vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.46-4.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.3%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.6%1st Place
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7.7George Washington University1.825.7%1st Place
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10.49Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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10.02Fordham University1.943.4%1st Place
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9.84Drexel University1.123.1%1st Place
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8.75SUNY Maritime College1.885.5%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University2.7513.8%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.9%1st Place
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6.91University of Pennsylvania2.429.0%1st Place
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8.78Webb Institute1.304.8%1st Place
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11.53Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
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14.33University of Virginia-0.031.1%1st Place
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5.78Cornell University2.389.9%1st Place
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14.96Washington College-0.281.1%1st Place
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13.75Christopher Newport University-0.841.2%1st Place
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13.35Princeton University0.460.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 19.4% | 22.9% |
| Bridget Green | 9.9% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tis | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 17.6% | 35.5% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 15.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.