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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.88vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.59vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.09vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+4.92vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.00vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.11vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.94+3.09vs Predicted
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8Drexel University1.12+1.82vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.38-3.39vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.46+3.39vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-3.40vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.47-0.51vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-2.59vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.20vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.31vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.37vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.03-2.76vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.28-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.8%1st Place
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7.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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5.09Georgetown University2.7514.4%1st Place
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8.92Webb Institute1.304.9%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania2.427.1%1st Place
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5.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.2%1st Place
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10.09Fordham University1.942.5%1st Place
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9.82Drexel University1.124.1%1st Place
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5.61Cornell University2.3811.4%1st Place
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13.39Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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7.6George Washington University1.826.6%1st Place
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11.49Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
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10.41Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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8.8SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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13.69Christopher Newport University-0.841.7%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.0%1st Place
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14.24University of Virginia-0.031.3%1st Place
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14.86Washington College-0.281.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 13.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 22.7% |
| Patrick Tis | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 34.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.