← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.10+4.86vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.43+6.22vs Predicted
-
3Yale University2.75+4.00vs Predicted
-
4University of Rhode Island2.10+5.04vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+2.30vs Predicted
-
6Brown University3.33-1.04vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College1.50+4.28vs Predicted
-
8Boston College2.44-0.08vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-0.72vs Predicted
-
10Bowdoin College2.45-1.84vs Predicted
-
11University of Vermont1.08+1.76vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College3.23-6.43vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University1.37-1.39vs Predicted
-
14Harvard University3.03-8.28vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-0.06vs Predicted
-
16Boston University1.60-4.94vs Predicted
-
17University of New Hampshire0.39-2.32vs Predicted
-
18Maine Maritime Academy-0.77-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.86Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
8.22Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
7.0Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
-
9.04University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
-
7.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
4.96Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
-
11.28Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
-
7.92Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
-
8.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
-
8.16Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
-
12.76University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
-
5.57Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
-
11.61Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
-
5.72Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
-
14.94Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
-
11.06Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
-
14.68University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
-
16.64Maine Maritime Academy-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 11.1% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 3.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Peter Busch | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 1.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 25.7% | 18.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| James Sullivan | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 18.5% | 25.1% | 14.7% |
| Anna LaDue | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 20.3% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.