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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+5.11vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+6.23vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.33+2.08vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.75+2.77vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+0.69vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.50+5.37vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.23-1.73vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.45-0.13vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-1.74vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.44-1.81vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-2.50vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.37+0.02vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.10-3.96vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.60-3.28vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.39-0.42vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.77+0.71vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-1.99vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont1.08-5.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.23Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.08Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.77Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.69Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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5.27Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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7.87Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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8.19Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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8.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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12.02Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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9.04University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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10.72Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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14.58University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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16.71Maine Maritime Academy-0.770.0%1st Place
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15.01Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.5% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.6% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 12.7% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 8.0% | 1.7% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| James Sullivan | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 24.1% | 12.5% |
| Anna LaDue | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 61.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 27.0% | 19.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 9.5% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.