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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.02vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+4.91vs Predicted
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3Hampton University1.47+8.67vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+6.06vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.92vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75-0.66vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.65vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.46+5.43vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84+5.00vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.03+4.48vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.12-1.00vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-5.90vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.15vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.81-3.50vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.42-7.85vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.38-10.22vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.92vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.19-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.1%1st Place
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6.91Webb Institute1.738.6%1st Place
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11.67Hampton University1.472.6%1st Place
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10.06Fordham University1.944.0%1st Place
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8.92SUNY Maritime College1.884.5%1st Place
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5.34Georgetown University2.7512.2%1st Place
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7.65George Washington University1.827.6%1st Place
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13.43Princeton University0.461.2%1st Place
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14.0Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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14.48University of Virginia-0.031.0%1st Place
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10.0Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
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6.1U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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10.5Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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7.15University of Pennsylvania2.427.0%1st Place
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5.78Cornell University2.3811.8%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.4%1st Place
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14.06Washington College0.191.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.2% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 15.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 20.1% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 17.8% | 26.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.