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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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11.91+9.11vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.23+3.41vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+5.10vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+1.63vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.03+0.85vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.44+1.92vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75-0.18vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43-0.13vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-1.66vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.37+1.99vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.27+1.22vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-3.38vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.50-1.83vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34+0.53vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy-0.77+1.79vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire0.39-1.32vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-5.81vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.33-13.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.111.910.0%1st Place
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5.41Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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8.1Bowdoin College2.450.0%1st Place
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5.63Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.85Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.92Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.82Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.87Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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11.99Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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8.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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11.17Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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14.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.0%1st Place
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16.79Maine Maritime Academy-0.770.0%1st Place
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14.68University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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11.19Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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4.78Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Lee | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% |
| Maks Groom | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Luke Kenahan | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 17.1% | 24.5% | 14.2% |
| Anna LaDue | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 62.7% |
| James Sullivan | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 26.1% | 15.3% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.