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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.95vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.71vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.96vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+1.93vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.73vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+1.78vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73-0.04vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.81+2.40vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-3.76vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.46+3.54vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.94-0.59vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.47-0.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.08vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.42-6.70vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-1.07vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-2.11vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.12-6.84vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.1%1st Place
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7.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.5%1st Place
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5.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.2%1st Place
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5.93Cornell University2.3810.4%1st Place
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8.73SUNY Maritime College1.885.9%1st Place
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7.78George Washington University1.826.2%1st Place
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6.96Webb Institute1.738.2%1st Place
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10.4Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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5.24Georgetown University2.7513.5%1st Place
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13.54Princeton University0.461.3%1st Place
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10.41Fordham University1.943.6%1st Place
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11.93Hampton University1.472.0%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
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7.3University of Pennsylvania2.427.1%1st Place
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13.93Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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13.89Washington College0.191.7%1st Place
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10.16Drexel University1.123.5%1st Place
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14.28University of Virginia-0.031.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 10.4% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 21.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 21.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.