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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.94+9.11vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+6.95vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.27vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.05vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.47+6.92vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.01vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.91vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-1.95vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.03vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.21vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.76vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-5.07vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.46+0.51vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.81-3.34vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-4.10vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.03-1.81vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-2.97vs Predicted
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18Drexel University1.12-7.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.11Fordham University1.944.1%1st Place
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8.95SUNY Maritime College1.884.8%1st Place
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5.27Georgetown University2.7512.9%1st Place
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7.05University of Pennsylvania2.427.6%1st Place
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11.92Hampton University1.472.0%1st Place
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5.99U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.7%1st Place
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7.91George Washington University1.826.8%1st Place
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6.05Cornell University2.3810.8%1st Place
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5.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.3%1st Place
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7.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.7%1st Place
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13.76Christopher Newport University-0.841.4%1st Place
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6.93Webb Institute1.738.2%1st Place
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13.51Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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10.66Old Dominion University1.813.9%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.4%1st Place
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14.19University of Virginia-0.031.1%1st Place
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14.03Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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10.03Drexel University1.124.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lobaugh | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 5.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 20.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 18.4% | 23.3% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 23.6% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.