Race 5B

bu-invite-oct

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

8.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Matthew Elliott 20.6% 20.5% 18.0% 15.2% 9.3% 8.6% 3.8% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Ingalls 9.4% 13.6% 11.2% 14.3% 13.3% 10.4% 10.6% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1%
Blake Vogel 8.2% 7.3% 8.4% 9.1% 11.0% 11.3% 12.5% 12.1% 9.1% 6.2% 3.2% 1.6%
Griffin Stolp 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.7% 5.4% 5.7% 8.5% 10.6% 13.3% 19.8% 24.1%
Richard Kalich 1.9% 5.0% 5.4% 4.0% 7.7% 9.9% 8.3% 8.7% 11.3% 14.5% 13.1% 10.2%
Drew Mastovsky 31.7% 23.3% 16.1% 12.4% 8.6% 4.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Gavin Monaghan 7.1% 6.5% 9.3% 9.0% 10.8% 9.6% 11.9% 10.7% 9.1% 8.7% 4.8% 2.5%
Fritz Baldauf 7.8% 8.3% 11.1% 9.1% 11.5% 10.4% 10.9% 11.7% 8.0% 6.3% 3.4% 1.5%
Daniel van Heeckeren 4.2% 4.4% 6.6% 11.4% 10.5% 9.9% 11.4% 10.7% 11.2% 9.7% 7.0% 3.0%
Samuel Rooks 4.5% 4.8% 5.9% 6.5% 7.5% 10.4% 9.8% 11.0% 13.2% 11.2% 9.1% 6.1%
Tyler Meadows 2.2% 2.0% 2.5% 3.7% 4.0% 5.4% 7.7% 8.5% 11.6% 14.3% 18.1% 20.0%
Christina Chen 1.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 4.5% 5.4% 6.8% 9.2% 12.9% 19.6% 30.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.