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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.93+4.94vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.40+0.76vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.09+0.30vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.16+3.84vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.77+1.33vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.39+1.29vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.96-1.29vs Predicted
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8Brown University0.58-1.35vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.38-4.33vs Predicted
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10Harvard University-0.53-0.62vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University-0.23-2.10vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.41-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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2.76Roger Williams University2.400.3%1st Place
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3.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.090.2%1st Place
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7.84Boston University0.160.0%1st Place
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6.33Boston University0.770.1%1st Place
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7.29Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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5.71Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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6.65Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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4.67University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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9.38Harvard University-0.530.0%1st Place
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8.9Northeastern University-0.230.0%1st Place
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9.23Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Vogel | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 30.1% | 23.9% | 17.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 22.6% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Gavin Monaghan | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Samuel Rooks | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 5.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.7% |
| Sam Ingalls | 10.0% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Christina Chen | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 17.3% | 30.7% |
| Tyler Meadows | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Griffin Stolp | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 19.4% | 26.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.