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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+6.71vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.81+8.58vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.37vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.82+3.67vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.14vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.12vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.13vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-2.08vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.94+1.13vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.47+1.63vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-3.91vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-5.08vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.46+0.59vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.13vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.12-4.87vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.08vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-2.98vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.2%1st Place
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10.58Old Dominion University1.812.9%1st Place
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5.37Georgetown University2.7513.2%1st Place
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7.67George Washington University1.826.9%1st Place
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9.14SUNY Maritime College1.884.7%1st Place
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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5.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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5.92Cornell University2.3811.5%1st Place
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10.13Fordham University1.943.4%1st Place
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11.63Hampton University1.472.5%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania2.428.1%1st Place
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6.92Webb Institute1.737.8%1st Place
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13.59Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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13.87Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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10.13Drexel University1.123.2%1st Place
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10.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.7%1st Place
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14.02Washington College0.191.1%1st Place
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14.29University of Virginia-0.030.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 19.9% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Lars Osell | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 21.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 17.2% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.