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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+4.16vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.94vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.83vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.05vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82+2.53vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.80vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+3.63vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.94+2.04vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.47+2.41vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.38-4.29vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.66vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.44vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.12-3.17vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.30-5.03vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.81-4.66vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.03-1.89vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.46-3.64vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.28-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16Georgetown University2.7513.4%1st Place
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5.94U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.7%1st Place
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5.83St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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7.05University of Pennsylvania2.427.0%1st Place
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7.53George Washington University1.827.1%1st Place
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8.8SUNY Maritime College1.885.0%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.5%1st Place
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10.04Fordham University1.943.7%1st Place
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11.41Hampton University1.472.4%1st Place
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5.71Cornell University2.3812.0%1st Place
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13.66Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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7.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.8%1st Place
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9.83Drexel University1.124.0%1st Place
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8.97Webb Institute1.304.2%1st Place
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10.34Old Dominion University1.813.0%1st Place
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14.11University of Virginia-0.030.9%1st Place
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13.36Princeton University0.461.6%1st Place
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15.08Washington College-0.281.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 13.4% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Bridget Green | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 16.9% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 18.6% | 22.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 14.1% |
| Patrick Tis | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.