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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.90vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.90vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75+2.16vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.71vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.94+4.98vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38-0.32vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+0.58vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.64vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University-0.84+4.55vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.38vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.47+0.71vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.30-2.86vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-2.68vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.03+0.22vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.12-5.14vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.46-2.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-6.31vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.28-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.4%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania2.428.9%1st Place
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5.16Georgetown University2.7514.4%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.4%1st Place
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9.98Fordham University1.943.5%1st Place
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5.68Cornell University2.3811.5%1st Place
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7.58George Washington University1.826.5%1st Place
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8.64SUNY Maritime College1.885.1%1st Place
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13.55Christopher Newport University-0.841.4%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.5%1st Place
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11.71Hampton University1.471.9%1st Place
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9.14Webb Institute1.303.7%1st Place
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10.32Old Dominion University1.813.8%1st Place
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14.22University of Virginia-0.031.2%1st Place
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9.86Drexel University1.123.3%1st Place
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13.4Princeton University0.461.4%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.5%1st Place
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14.94Washington College-0.280.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.4% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Bridget Green | 11.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| Will Murray | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 4.7% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 23.4% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 34.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.