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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+4.22vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.82+5.68vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+6.03vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.73+3.01vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.82vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.47+5.95vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.11vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-2.02vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.46+4.65vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.81vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.81-0.25vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-4.08vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.12-2.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.60-8.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.94-4.75vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.19-2.13vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.15vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.22Georgetown University2.7512.8%1st Place
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7.68George Washington University1.826.0%1st Place
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9.03SUNY Maritime College1.884.8%1st Place
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7.01Webb Institute1.738.9%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.5%1st Place
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11.95Hampton University1.471.8%1st Place
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7.11University of Pennsylvania2.427.9%1st Place
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5.98Cornell University2.3810.7%1st Place
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13.65Princeton University0.461.1%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.8%1st Place
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10.75Old Dominion University1.813.2%1st Place
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7.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.9%1st Place
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10.12Drexel University1.124.2%1st Place
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5.73U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.5%1st Place
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10.25Fordham University1.943.6%1st Place
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13.87Washington College0.191.3%1st Place
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13.85Christopher Newport University-0.841.4%1st Place
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14.24University of Virginia-0.030.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 17.1% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Toby Sullivan | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 20.6% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 25.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.