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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+2.64vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.85vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+2.12vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.28+2.99vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.18-0.38vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+1.07vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26-0.25vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57-1.94vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-0.49vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.51-0.77vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.78+1.18vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.37-2.50vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.39vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.64Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.85U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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5.12Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.99Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.62University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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6.75George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.51St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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9.23Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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12.18Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.5Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.88SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 21.4% | 20.7% | 14.9% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 18.3% | 17.3% | 15.5% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Torrey Chisari | 11.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 5.2% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 22.1% | 42.6% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 6.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 6.3% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 24.2% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.