← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.55+2.67vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University1.93+2.98vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.93vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.51vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.56vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.82vs Predicted
-
7Washington College0.51+1.87vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.57-1.90vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University1.26-1.90vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.28-2.94vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-3.95vs Predicted
-
12Christopher Newport University0.37-2.50vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University-0.78-1.03vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.67Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
-
4.98Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
3.93U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
-
4.51University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
-
8.56St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
-
9.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
8.87Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
-
6.1Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
-
7.1George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
-
7.06Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
-
7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
-
9.5Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
-
11.97Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
-
11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 20.2% | 20.6% | 15.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.1% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 19.1% | 15.7% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 13.9% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 8.5% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Laura Smith | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 6.9% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 21.0% | 39.7% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 23.9% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.