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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+2.65vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.18+2.33vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.26+3.98vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.01vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.57+1.21vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+2.57vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93-2.05vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.28-1.10vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.96vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.51-0.76vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.49vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.26vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-1.13vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.78-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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4.33University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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6.98George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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4.01U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.21Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.57St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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4.95Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.9Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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9.24Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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9.51Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.0Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 19.5% | 21.7% | 15.1% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.9% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.4% | 17.7% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 2.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| Laura Smith | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 5.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 8.1% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 22.4% | 36.7% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 23.0% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.