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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.99vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.28+4.76vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.55+0.62vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.47vs Predicted
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5Washington College0.51+4.24vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.37+3.60vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+1.21vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.06vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93-3.77vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.19vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-4.75vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.78+0.13vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-1.14vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.26-7.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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6.76Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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3.62Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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4.47University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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9.24Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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9.6Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.21St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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6.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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5.23Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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6.25Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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12.13Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
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11.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.88George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.8% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 22.7% | 17.9% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.1% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 5.1% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 6.4% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 1.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 15.5% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 7.4% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 21.7% | 41.3% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 22.2% | 36.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.