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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.88vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+4.99vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+7.77vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.82+3.62vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+0.28vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.23vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.83vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.94+2.12vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.81+1.83vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.06vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.46+2.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-5.85vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-7.18vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.16vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.47-3.27vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.12-5.85vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.19-3.09vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.03-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.6%1st Place
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6.99Webb Institute1.738.2%1st Place
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10.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.222.7%1st Place
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7.62George Washington University1.827.4%1st Place
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5.28Georgetown University2.7513.8%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.427.7%1st Place
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7.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.8%1st Place
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10.12Fordham University1.943.1%1st Place
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10.83Old Dominion University1.812.5%1st Place
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8.94SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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13.55Princeton University0.461.6%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Naval Academy2.6011.2%1st Place
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5.82Cornell University2.3811.9%1st Place
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13.84Christopher Newport University-0.840.9%1st Place
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11.73Hampton University1.471.8%1st Place
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10.15Drexel University1.123.2%1st Place
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13.91Washington College0.191.3%1st Place
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14.36University of Virginia-0.031.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.8% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| Valerio Palamara | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 17.3% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.