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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.18+3.43vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.54vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+5.71vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+2.06vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+1.06vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26-0.22vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93-2.84vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-2.84vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-0.39vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.51-1.83vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.72-0.05vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-4.59vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.78-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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3.54Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.94U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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9.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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7.06Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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6.78George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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5.16Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.16Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.61Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.17Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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11.95SUNY Stony Brook-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.41St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.02Princeton University-0.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 14.3% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.5% | 20.0% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 18.0% | 16.5% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 8.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 7.6% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 4.6% |
| Rose von Eckartsberg | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 22.9% | 35.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Bracklinn Williams | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 23.7% | 39.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.